Geek out

Well, Apple's WWDC is almost upon us. It's primary a software developers conference and shouldn't be of much interest to the wider world at large, but that hasn't stopped Apple using it as a launchpad for significant new hardware in times past - the first G5 Mac, for example, was launched to much acclaim two years ago (along with a claim that the processor would hit 3Ghz within a year, but the less said about that the better). There wasn't much expectation for new hardware this year, however, with the majority of the Mac line having undergone refreshes in the last six months (save for the much neglected iBooks - hardly the most exciting part of Apple's product line in any case). So aside from the prospect of Steve Jobs waxing lyrical about the virtues of Tiger, there was little expectation of news of any real newsworthiness this time around.

Well, there was a rumour a little while ago, about Apple having talks with Intel. Naturally this was used as an excuse to dredge up all those old rumours about Apple abandoning the PowerPC platform to jump aboard the x86 platform instead. It wasn't the first time the rumour surfaced, and I'm tempted to write it won't be the last... except that this time around our familiar rumour appears to be slowly bridging the gape towards factualness. Two respectable news sources (CNet and the Wall Street Journal) have already reported it as fact. It may not seem like much, but both are trusted sources which are hardly given to bandying unproven rumours around as facts.

So could it be true? I'll admit that even now I view such an event as unlikely, though not impossible. What's the evidence for such a move? Well, there's no real evidence as such, but there's definitely some motivation:

Apple have been seriously constrained by IBM's lack of progress with the G5 chip for the last two years. There have been embarassing supply problems, which delayed the launched of the current iMac, the failure of the processor to reach the speed Steve Jobs himself once claimed it would, and there hasn't been enough progress made to reduce the power requirements of the G5. Put simply, the G5 is a based on a server class chip, with server class power requirements. Apple have stated time and time again that fitting a G5 chip into it's svelt Powerbook chassis represents a considerable engineering feat. At present, it's not in IBM's interests to devote engineering resources into creating a less power hungry chip when it's sole market for such a beast is Apple. It's somewhat telling that a heavily customised variations of the PowerPC chip will be present in all three consoles due from Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo over the coming 18 months, with unit sales likely to dwarf those of Apple (Sony, for example, has just sold it's 90 millionth PS2). That the console market takes higher precedence than Apple for IBM is telling. All in all, the G5 hasn't been the panacea many hoped it would.

Intel on the other hand, have a wide variety of processors, to suit all segments of the markets Apple are interested in, replete with a range designed specifically for the laptop market (and lest you doubt the significance of this, be aware that laptops have just started to outsell desktops for the first time). Plus Intel produce the supporting chipsets, something which I'd imagine consumes some not inconsiderable resources over at Apple. The appeal of having a ready made platform which will be guaranteed to keep pace with anything in the world of Microsoft's Windows isn't hard to see.

On the other hand, such a move would require a vast investment, not only from Apple, but from any Mac software developers. Apple have done it before, so we know such a thing is possible, and with OS X as a base it will be even easier this time around, but it still risks losing developers, not to mention alienating the Mac faithful (especially those who've just shelled out on new hardware). The other factor involved is the time frame - with PowerMac using Intel hardware not expected until 2007. If there is to be a platform change (and that encompasses several different "if"'s - see below), Apple risks consumers playing wait and see, which could have severely detrimental effects on Apple's small but steady market share.

On the plus side, Apple are also in a far better position to do this now brandwise. Apple dipped it's toes into the stormy waters of Mac clones some years ago, but said experiment was nipped in the bud after it was feared that the clones were cannabilising Apples own meagre market share. Now, with OS X running on an intel x86 platform, it's almost inevitable that we'll see white box x86 PC running OS X before too long. Whilst that might have been a problem once upon a time, Apple's brand has long been in the ascendancy, in no small part thanks to the iPod, and Apple are now in the fortunate position that people will buy a Mac not because it's a Mac, but because of that silky silver Apple logo on the front. In short, Apple's brand is strong enough to survive the transition to x86 because their brand is desirable (and to be fair, their hardware is simply gorgeous, as anyone who's ever lust over a Powerbook will attest).

Still, there is another possibility - that perhaps Intel may end up producing PowerPC processors on Apple's behalf. It's not inconceivable, since I believe (though feel free to correct me), that Apple were involved in the original development of the PowerPC platform (along with Motorola and IBM) and have access to the corresponding intellectual property. Again it's possible, but in this case I don't see that Intel have much to gain. As with IBM, any income derived from Apple is likely to be a drop in the vast sea of money that flows steadily into Intel's coffers, and it seems strange to me that Intel would invest resources in such a niche market.

Anyway, that's quite enough of my wittering. Steve Jobs is due to take the stage in just under 10 minutes, so it won't be too long until we find out exactly what - if anything - is going on. One thing's become clear to me writing this is that Apple are in a bit of a no-win situation. Unless Intel really is intent on producing PowerPC derivatives, or else IBM can pull a G5 shaped rabbit out of it's hat, it's clear that Apple face an unenviable choice: Remain with IBM, a company which clearly does not have Apple's best interests at heart, or else move to x86 with all the fun and games that involves.

My best guess? The former - there's a still a voice in the back of my head telling me that we'll see satan snowboarding in hell before we see OS X on x86. But we'll find out shortly...

Update: Well, looks like the Devil had better get his snow board on...